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Economic Consequences of Russia’s Invasion of Georgia

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Looking at U.S. trade data, we’re a little suprised to see that even with its energy resources, Russia’s economy is still second tier. In 2007, Russia ranked 30th among countries in the value of U.S. exports shipped there, $7.3 billion, right behind the Philippines, Chile and Thailand. Granted, U.S. exports to Russia jumped 57 percent from 2006 to 2007.

Here’s the breakdown of U.S. exports to Russia in 2007 from TradeStatsExpress:

 

Product

Value ($)

Percent

 

84–NUCLEAR REACTORS, BOILERS, MACHINERY ETC.; PARTS

1,773,147,039

24.1 %

 

87–VEHICLES, EXCEPT RAILWAY OR TRAMWAY, AND PARTS ETC

1,333,037,080

18.1 %

 

02–MEAT AND EDIBLE MEAT OFFAL

953,140,729

12.9 %

 

88–AIRCRAFT, SPACECRAFT, AND PARTS THEREOF

754,270,489

10.2 %

 

All Others

2,551,749,259

34.6 %

 

 Grand Total

7,365,344,596

100 %

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So what happens now after the invasion of Georgia?

From the BBC’s world news roundup:

MIKHAIL SERGEYEV IN RUSSIA’S NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA

The threat of economic sanctions against Russia over its policy in relation to Georgia is becoming increasingly real. Threats of postponing our country’s accession to the WTO were voiced in the US yesterday. Experts think that should Washington and the EU decide to impose economic sanctions on our country, it could be metals companies that will sustain the heaviest losses. Gas and oilmen are not afraid of sanctions because right now the West cannot do without their supplies.

And Reuters:

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Blocking Russia from joining the World Trade Organization because of the conflict in Georgia would defy common sense and break Western promises, a Russian official said on Thursday in response to U.S. warnings.

A senior U.S. official said on Tuesday Russian integration into international institutions such as the WTO was in question because of Moscow’s military operations in Georgia. President George W. Bush said on Wednesday the fighting was hurting Russia’s efforts to join global economic and security bodies.

“There are no formal reasons to stop these (accession) talks,” the senior Russian official, who is close to the WTO membership negotiations, told Reuters.

Charles Krauthammer writes that Russia’s goal is the Finlandinization of Georgia and reviews non-military steps that the United States and its allies can take, including the dissolution of the G-8 and Russia’s barring from the WTO.

UPDATE: (5:10 p.m.) Imports from Russia, 2007. Energy dependence, insecurity, in action:

 

 

Product

Value ($)

Percent

 

27–MINERAL FUEL, OIL ETC.; BITUMIN SUBST; MINERAL WAX

10,968,706,560

56.7 %

 

28–INORG CHEM; PREC & RARE-EARTH MET & RADIOACT COMPD

1,483,950,296

7.7 %

 

76–ALUMINUM AND ARTICLES THEREOF

1,477,752,592

7.6 %

 

72–IRON AND STEEL

1,075,624,427

5.6 %

 

All Others

4,354,205,694

22.5 %

 

 Grand Total

19,360,239,569

100 %

 

 


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